With the election of Donald Trump we should fully expect a recession sometime in 2025 or 2026 due to poor financial decision making. Putting an incompetent senile man in diapers in charge of economic policy is not going to be good for the American economy.
As such the post Biden years should perhaps be called "the Post-Prosperity Era". Or the Trump Depression. Whichever the historians pick.
For writers and publishers this will be a tough time...
The book industry has weathered countless storms—wars, technological revolutions, even pandemics. But the economic landscape emerging now is different. With inflation stubbornly high, traditional publishing models weakening, and reader habits shifting under financial pressure, we may be entering a post-prosperity era—one where success looks different, and survival means adaptability.
So what does the next decade really look like for writers? Let’s unpack what’s changing, what’s staying the same, and where opportunity still lives.
1. The Shrinking Middle
In a strong economy, the publishing world can support a broad spectrum of authors—from literary mid-listers to breakout bestsellers to niche genre writers. In a weaker economy, that middle gets hollowed out.
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Debut authors face tougher odds. Publishers are less likely to take risks, especially on non-commercial voices. Even seasoned writers are being dropped if their sales stagnate.
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Bestsellers consolidate power. Big names and celebrity authors continue to sell, drawing even more of the shrinking marketing and retail space.
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The small and indie presses suffer. Less access to paper, print runs, and shelf space can strangle smaller houses that rely on narrow margins.
For most writers, this means leaner advances, shorter contracts, and fewer promotional resources—even if your work is critically acclaimed.
2. Digital Dominance, With Caveats
Ebooks and audiobooks are not just alternatives anymore—they’re becoming the primary formats for many readers, especially younger ones. The lower production costs and scalability make them attractive in tough economic times.
However, digital doesn’t solve everything:
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Ebook markets are oversaturated, making discoverability a constant battle.
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Revenue per unit is lower, especially through subscription services.
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Audiobook production remains expensive, despite growing demand.
Still, authors who embrace digital early—and learn the platforms, algorithms, and promotional tools—will have a major edge. Expect more serialized content, interactive storytelling, and author-run newsletters.
3. Direct-to-Reader Is the New Frontier
As traditional publishing tightens its belt, more writers will move toward reader-funded models. Platforms like Patreon, Substack, Ko-fi, and Kickstarter will become mainstream income streams for writers of all stripes.
This path isn’t easy. It requires:
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Constant content output.
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Community-building and audience engagement.
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Entrepreneurial skill and long-term planning.
But for writers willing to engage directly with readers—and create value beyond the book itself—it can be more sustainable than chasing elusive publishing deals.
4. Literary Value Will Compete With Economic Utility
In a time of economic uncertainty, readers often prioritize usefulness over beauty. Nonfiction that teaches, solves problems, or offers survival insight may outsell literary fiction or experimental poetry.
That doesn’t mean the novel is dead—but it does mean:
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Fiction writers may need to frame their work more clearly in terms of emotional or social relevance.
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Genre fiction (thrillers, romance, dystopian) may dominate over slower literary works.
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Hybrid genres and cross-media storytelling (visual novels, podcasts, web fiction) may become entry points for new audiences.
Art will survive—but it may have to meet the moment more directly than before.
5. Global Perspective, Local Strategy
The post-prosperity era will also push writers to think globally but act locally:
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Foreign rights sales may become more important than ever as writers tap into expanding markets abroad.
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Local events, school visits, indie partnerships could become lifelines for authors who can’t rely on national tours or retail chains.
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Translations, collaborations, and anthologies may become more common as writers pool resources and audiences across borders.
Success won’t just come from writing the best book—it will come from writing the right book, at the right time, for the right audience, with the right delivery system.
Final Thoughts: The Age of Resilient Storytelling
The next ten years won’t be defined by abundance, but by adaptability. Writers who succeed in the post-prosperity era will likely be:
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Multi-skilled (writing, marketing, editing, tech-savvy).
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Diversified (multiple income streams, multiple genres or formats).
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Community-driven (connecting with readers and fellow creatives directly).
It may not be easy—but it can still be meaningful. After all, some of the most enduring literature in history was created during times of hardship. The future may be leaner, but it’s not without potential—for those ready to write smarter, not just harder.
